Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Caris LeVertPoints21
- Caris LeVertAssists7
- Sam MerrillRebounds8
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Fred VanVleetAssists16
- Jalen GreenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–117
- Q422.0Reggie Bullock Jr. defensive rebound103–117
- Q423.0Damian Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper103–117
- Q433.1Sam Merrill defensive rebound103–117
- Q434.1Jae'Sean Tate misses 22-foot three point jumper103–117
- Q445.1Damian Jones makes free throw 1 of 1103–117
- Q445.1Boban Marjanovic shooting foul102–117
- Q445.1Damian Jones makes layup (Craig Porter assists)102–117
- Q458.0Aaron Holiday makes driving layup100–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:36Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point shot (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 32 – 37 HOU · CLE 42% → 49% +7CLE 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q210:18Jeff Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)CLE 32 – 40 HOU · HOU 51% → 58% +7HOU 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q29:44Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)CLE 34 – 43 HOU · HOU 54% → 61% +7HOU 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q28:59Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 37 – 45 HOU · CLE 34% → 41% +7CLE 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q28:41Jae'Sean Tate makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)CLE 37 – 48 HOU · HOU 59% → 66% +7HOU 59% → 66%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 64%
- Fair odds
- CLE -172
- HOU +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 111.2 – 107.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −44 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +100 Elo | CLE 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 113.220th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 111.224th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 22–119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.