Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints30
- Payton PritchardAssists13
- Jayson TatumRebounds6
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints31
- Jared ButlerAssists6
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–104
- Q420.2shot clock turnover130–104
- Q442.0Neemias Queta defensive rebound130–104
- Q447.0Jules Bernard misses 25-foot three point jumper130–104
- Q458.1Anthony Gill defensive goaltending violation130–104
- Q458.1Payton Pritchard makes two point shot130–104
- Q41:00Jules Bernard lost ball turnover (Payton Pritchard steals)128–104
- Q41:11Patrick Baldwin Jr. defensive rebound128–104
- Q41:17Svi Mykhailiuk misses 26-foot three point jumper128–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:13Al Horford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 4 – 0 WSH · BOS 80% → 84% +4BOS 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q19:39Jordan Poole makes 28-foot step back jumpshotBOS 10 – 8 WSH · WSH 15% → 19% +4WSH 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q19:01Jayson Tatum makes 28-foot three pointer (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 13 – 10 WSH · BOS 78% → 83% +4BOS 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:46Jordan Poole makes 31-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)BOS 13 – 13 WSH · WSH 18% → 22% +4WSH 18% → 22%+4 pts
- Q15:58Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 20 – 17 WSH · BOS 77% → 82% +5BOS 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -13.5
- BOS 90%
- Fair odds
- BOS -372
- WSH +372 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 122.3 – 112.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1711 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −5 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +377 Elo | BOS 89.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 78.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 114.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 123.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.2 | Margin | −9.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.7 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 118.230th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.4 | Pace | 104.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–11 | Road vs home | 4–2630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−31 Elo- Jaylen Brown sprained right ankle−39 Elo
Wizards
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.