Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints23
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds20
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints37
- Jrue HolidayAssists10
- Derrick WhiteRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–127
- Q47.0shot clock turnover112–127
- Q431.1Thaddeus Young makes two point shot112–127
- Q433.1Thaddeus Young offensive rebound110–127
- Q435.1David Roddy misses 26-foot three point jumper110–127
- Q441.1Nassir Little defensive rebound110–127
- Q444.2Sam Hauser misses 24-foot three point shot110–127
- Q449.1David Roddy lost ball turnover (Luke Kornet steals)110–127
- Q41:01Payton Pritchard out of bounds bad pass turnover110–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:58Bol Bol makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 51 – 50 BOS · PHX 35% → 43% +8PHX 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q22:48Ish Wainright makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 56 – 56 BOS · PHX 33% → 41% +8PHX 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q22:27Al Horford makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)PHX 56 – 59 BOS · BOS 59% → 67% +8BOS 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q21:14Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumperPHX 58 – 62 BOS · BOS 62% → 70% +8BOS 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q247.0Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPHX 58 – 65 BOS · BOS 70% → 77% +7BOS 70% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 70%
- Fair odds
- BOS -167
- PHX +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.6 – 116.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1704 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +25 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | BOS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +146 Elo | BOS 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 120.82nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 109.65th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +11.21st of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 120.51st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 109.42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.5 | Pace | 99.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 29–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.