Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- John CollinsPoints25
- Collin SextonAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints41
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Amen ThompsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–147
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–147
- Q420.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound119–147
- Q423.1Brice Sensabaugh misses 26-foot three point jumper119–147
- Q445.0Jae'Sean Tate makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)119–147
- Q41:01Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kira Lewis Jr. assists)119–144
- Q41:07Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound116–144
- Q41:09Boban Marjanovic misses 9-foot two point shot116–144
- Q41:27Boban Marjanovic defensive rebound116–144
- Q41:29Kira Lewis Jr. misses 15-foot two point shot116–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:22Taylor Hendricks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 5 – 4 HOU · UTAH 27% → 33% +6UTAH 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q19:30Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)UTAH 7 – 10 HOU · HOU 69% → 75% +5HOU 69% → 75%+5 pts
- Q17:33Johnny Juzang makes 25-foot three point shot (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 11 – 16 HOU · UTAH 18% → 22% +5UTAH 18% → 22%+5 pts
- Q14:53John Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 19 – 25 HOU · UTAH 16% → 21% +5UTAH 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q14:38Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)UTAH 19 – 28 HOU · HOU 79% → 84% +5HOU 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8
- HOU 79%
- Fair odds
- HOU -229
- UTAH +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.9 – 120.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −17 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +228 Elo | HOU 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 69.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 113.816th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 112.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.7 | Margin | +1.217th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 111.820th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 110.66th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 25th of 309–26 | Road vs home | 24–117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.