Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints25
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints35
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–119
- Q47.0Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound107–119
- Q410.0Brice Sensabaugh misses 25-foot three point jumper107–119
- Q419.0Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound107–119
- Q422.0Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–119
- Q434.0Kira Lewis Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2107–119
- Q434.0Kira Lewis Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2106–119
- Q434.0Lindy Waters III shooting foul105–119
- Q439.1Cason Wallace makes driving layup (Lindy Waters III assists)105–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:15Josh Giddey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)UTAH 51 – 51 OKC · OKC 63% → 71% +8OKC 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q217.1Taylor Hendricks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 54 – 53 OKC · UTAH 25% → 32% +7UTAH 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q310:38John Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 59 – 57 OKC · UTAH 28% → 36% +8UTAH 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q32:48Talen Horton-Tucker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Micah Potter assists)UTAH 74 – 77 OKC · UTAH 16% → 24% +8UTAH 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q410:32Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)UTAH 82 – 89 OKC · OKC 79% → 87% +8OKC 79% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10
- OKC 84%
- Fair odds
- OKC -345
- UTAH +345 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 116.0 – 125.4 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +19 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +283 Elo | OKC 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 113.113th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.4 | Margin | +7.62nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 110.78th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.411th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–24 | Road vs home | 27–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.