Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints31
- Kyle AndersonAssists9
- Naz ReidRebounds12
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists10
- Taylor HendricksRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–100
- Q43.0shot clock turnover119–100
- Q427.0Taylor Hendricks makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Collin Sexton assists)119–100
- Q434.0Josh Minott makes 24-foot three point jumper (Leonard Miller assists)119–98
- Q447.0Brice Sensabaugh makes 13-foot two point shot (Collin Sexton assists)116–98
- Q41:02Josh Minott makes driving layup (Leonard Miller assists)116–96
- Q41:15Taylor Hendricks makes 5-foot hook shot (Collin Sexton assists)114–96
- Q41:27Luka Garza makes layup (T.J. Warren assists)114–94
- Q41:36Josh Minott enters the game for Jaden McDaniels112–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:49Mike Conley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 51 – 48 UTAH · MIN 59% → 68% +8MIN 59% → 68%+8 pts
- Q310:11Keyonte George makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 53 – 53 UTAH · UTAH 32% → 41% +9UTAH 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q38:16Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 58 – 57 UTAH · MIN 52% → 62% +9MIN 52% → 62%+9 pts
- Q37:55Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point shot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 61 – 57 UTAH · MIN 62% → 71% +9MIN 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q31:25Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotMIN 77 – 70 UTAH · MIN 72% → 81% +9MIN 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7
- MIN 75%
- Fair odds
- MIN -172
- UTAH +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.5 – 112.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −41 | −25 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +192 Elo | MIN 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 117.79th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Points allowed | 120.827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | −3.123rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 114.515th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 117.528th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 102.09th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3022–13 | Road vs home | 20–1313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.