Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints36
- Kyrie IrvingAssists12
- Daniel GaffordRebounds15
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–126
- Q418.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2119–126
- Q418.1Josh Giddey enters the game for Luguentz Dort118–126
- Q418.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2118–126
- Q418.1Luguentz Dort loose ball foul117–126
- Q418.1Mavericks defensive team rebound117–126
- Q419.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 25-foot step back jumpshot117–126
- Q437.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound117–126
- Q440.1Kyrie Irving misses 23-foot three point jumper117–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:28Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)DAL 66 – 68 OKC · OKC 64% → 72% +8OKC 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q33:21Dante Exum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DAL 82 – 84 OKC · DAL 21% → 30% +9DAL 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q31:58Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 84 – 89 OKC · OKC 70% → 79% +9OKC 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q49:50Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)DAL 95 – 102 OKC · OKC 77% → 86% +9OKC 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q47:55Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Williams assists)DAL 101 – 109 OKC · OKC 81% → 90% +9OKC 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 74%
- Fair odds
- OKC -275
- DAL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.3 – 123.0 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −54 | +19 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +179 Elo | OKC 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 113.013th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +7.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 110.65th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.1 | Pace | 101.411th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 26–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.