Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints27
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds9
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints23
- Kyrie IrvingAssists10
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–109
- Q46.2Jerome Robinson makes 1-foot layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)99–109
- Q428.0Jerome Robinson defensive rebound97–109
- Q430.1Jaden Hardy misses 9-foot two point shot97–109
- Q442.1Kevon Looney makes 1-foot dunk (Dario Saric assists)97–109
- Q455.2Dante Exum makes free throw 1 of 195–109
- Q455.2Kevon Looney shooting foul95–108
- Q455.2Dante Exum makes driving layup95–108
- Q41:05Brandin Podziemski makes 24-foot step back jumpshot95–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:06Chris Paul makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 27 – 23 DAL · GS 41% → 48% +7GS 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q311:28Klay Thompson makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotGS 45 – 48 DAL · GS 25% → 33% +8GS 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q36:49Dante Exum makes 23-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)GS 53 – 57 DAL · DAL 61% → 70% +9DAL 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q34:36Luka Doncic makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Dante Exum assists)GS 58 – 65 DAL · DAL 71% → 79% +8DAL 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q32:33Jonathan Kuminga makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Moses Moody assists)GS 63 – 67 DAL · GS 20% → 29% +9GS 20% → 29%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 59%
- Fair odds
- DAL -166
- GS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 118.3 – 122.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +43 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +65 Elo | DAL 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 119.16th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 117.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 116.66th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 115.322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.28th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 19–1517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.