Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds8
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints24
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–104
- Q40.0(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)114–104
- Q40.0Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)114–104
- Q415.0Keyonte George makes driving layup111–104
- Q424.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2111–102
- Q424.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2110–102
- Q424.1Walker Kessler personal take foul109–102
- Q431.0Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)109–102
- Q441.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2109–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:04Collin Sexton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)MIN 79 – 77 UTAH · UTAH 29% → 40% +11UTAH 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q328.1Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point shot (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)MIN 83 – 83 UTAH · UTAH 35% → 47% +12UTAH 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q410:45Jordan McLaughlin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 88 – 85 UTAH · MIN 53% → 65% +13MIN 53% → 65%+13 pts
- Q43:57Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 103 – 96 UTAH · MIN 78% → 90% +13MIN 78% → 90%+13 pts
- Q42:54Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)MIN 103 – 99 UTAH · UTAH 6% → 19% +12UTAH 6% → 19%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- UTAH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.7 – 113.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1622 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +7 | MIN: Missing Rudy Gobert −24 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +140 Elo | MIN 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 117.49th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Points allowed | 120.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.7 | Margin | −3.323rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 114.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 117.629th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.98th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3023–13 | Road vs home | 20–1415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−35 Elo- Rudy Gobert rib injury−24 Elo
Jazz
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–0 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.