Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints23
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints22
- Luke KennardAssists9
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–112
- Q41.1Cason Wallace defensive rebound118–112
- Q41.1Chet Holmgren blocks Jaren Jackson Jr. 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot118–112
- Q44.1Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2118–112
- Q44.1Luguentz Dort enters the game for Josh Giddey117–112
- Q44.1Cason Wallace enters the game for Isaiah Joe117–112
- Q44.1Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2117–112
- Q44.1Desmond Bane personal take foul116–112
- Q46.0Josh Giddey enters the game for Cason Wallace116–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:47Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)OKC 70 – 70 MEM · MEM 32% → 41% +10MEM 32% → 41%+10 pts
- Q34:48Gordon Hayward makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 75 – 70 MEM · OKC 65% → 74% +9OKC 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q410:01Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointer (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)OKC 93 – 89 MEM · MEM 17% → 27% +10MEM 17% → 27%+10 pts
- Q48:37Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 98 – 91 MEM · OKC 74% → 85% +10OKC 74% → 85%+10 pts
- Q46:56Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 103 – 96 MEM · OKC 75% → 86% +11OKC 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 75%
- Fair odds
- OKC -180
- MEM +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 111.7 – 107.2 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +1 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Lamar Stevens −3 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +194 Elo | OKC 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 105.730th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 112.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.7 | Margin | −6.525th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 105.230th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 8–2627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+1 Elo- Lamar Stevens left adductor strain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 2–0 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.