Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints27
- Vasilije MicicAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds6
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints26
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists10
- John KoncharRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–98
- Q421.1GG Jackson makes 25-foot three pointer110–98
- Q432.1Grant Williams makes 13-foot two point shot110–95
- Q455.1Trey Jemison makes tip shot108–95
- Q455.1Trey Jemison offensive rebound108–93
- Q457.1Jake LaRavia misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot108–93
- Q41:01GG Jackson offensive rebound108–93
- Q41:04DeJon Jarreau misses driving floating jump shot108–93
- Q41:19Grant Williams makes free throw 2 of 2108–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:32Vasilije Micic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aleksej Pokusevski assists)CHA 70 – 63 MEM · CHA 61% → 70% +10CHA 61% → 70%+10 pts
- Q35:16GG Jackson makes 27-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)CHA 70 – 66 MEM · MEM 30% → 39% +10MEM 30% → 39%+10 pts
- Q33:36Vasilije Micic makes 27-foot three pointerCHA 77 – 70 MEM · CHA 62% → 72% +10CHA 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q45:50GG Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)CHA 92 – 86 MEM · MEM 10% → 20% +10MEM 10% → 20%+10 pts
- Q45:36Vasilije Micic makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 95 – 86 MEM · CHA 81% → 91% +10CHA 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1
- MEM 54%
- Fair odds
- MEM -122
- CHA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 101.1 – 102.6 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1352 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −22 | −21 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Lamar Stevens −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +27 Elo | MEM 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 105.830th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 112.39th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.2 | Margin | −6.425th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 105.330th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.8 | Defense rating | 111.79th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 100.017th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–26 | Road vs home | 8–2527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−21 Elo- Lamar Stevens left adductor soreness−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 1–0 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.