Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints24
- Brandon MillerAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds13
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–114
- Q412.0shot clock turnover97–114
- Q437.0Simone Fontecchio makes two point shot (Jaden Ivey assists)97–114
- Q440.1Jaden Ivey defensive rebound97–112
- Q444.0Jaden Ivey blocks Grant Williams 's 4-foot two point shot97–112
- Q448.1Vasilije Micic defensive rebound97–112
- Q452.1Cade Cunningham misses 26-foot three point jumper97–112
- Q41:14Grant Williams turnover97–112
- Q41:14Grant Williams offensive foul97–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:25Vasilije Micic makes 25-foot three pointer (Aleksej Pokusevski assists)CHA 41 – 48 DET · CHA 23% → 30% +7CHA 23% → 30%+7 pts
- Q24:02Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 44 – 48 DET · CHA 29% → 37% +7CHA 29% → 37%+7 pts
- Q22:27Simone Fontecchio makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)CHA 46 – 51 DET · DET 58% → 66% +8DET 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q311:42Isaiah Stewart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)CHA 46 – 56 DET · DET 72% → 79% +7DET 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q44:58Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 91 – 98 DET · CHA 5% → 12% +7CHA 5% → 12%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 57%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- CHA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 109.9 – 110.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1361 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | −7 | CHA: Missing Tre Mann −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +46 Elo | DET 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 112.323rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 121.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.1 | Margin | −8.828th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 109.425th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.8 | Defense rating | 118.029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–25 | Road vs home | 5–2629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−21 Elo- Tre Mann left groin strain−7 Elo
Pistons
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–2 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.