Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints21
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–113
- Q422.1Dwight Powell defensive rebound97–113
- Q425.1Brice Sensabaugh misses 25-foot three point jumper97–113
- Q435.1A.J. Lawson makes two point shot (Jaden Hardy assists)97–113
- Q438.0Dante Exum defensive rebound97–111
- Q439.1Brice Sensabaugh misses driving floating jump shot97–111
- Q449.1Walker Kessler defensive rebound97–111
- Q452.1A.J. Lawson misses driving floating jump shot97–111
- Q41:02Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 297–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q131.1Maxi Kleber makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)UTAH 24 – 23 DAL · DAL 67% → 73% +6DAL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q121.1Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 27 – 23 DAL · UTAH 27% → 33% +6UTAH 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q12.0Jaden Hardy makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Kyrie Irving assists)UTAH 27 – 26 DAL · DAL 67% → 73% +6DAL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q211:06Maxi Kleber makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)UTAH 27 – 31 DAL · DAL 77% → 82% +5DAL 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q23:47Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Luka Doncic assists)UTAH 39 – 45 DAL · DAL 79% → 84% +5DAL 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -10
- DAL 84%
- Fair odds
- DAL -358
- UTAH +358 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 116.5 – 126.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | +58 | UTAH: Usual rotation · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +286 Elo | DAL 83.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 78.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 118.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 117.322nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.6 | Margin | +1.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 116.37th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 114.921st of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–25 | Road vs home | 21–1515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–1 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.