Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints23
- Jamal MurrayAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints37
- Kyrie IrvingAssists9
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–107
- Q40.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)105–107
- Q40.1Kyrie Irving makes 21-foot two point shot (Maxi Kleber assists)105–107
- Q42.1Mavericks Full timeout105–105
- Q42.1Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound105–105
- Q44.1Jamal Murray misses 14-foot pullup jump shot105–105
- Q425.0Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)105–105
- Q426.1Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Daniel Gafford105–102
- Q426.1Mavericks Full timeout105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:51Jamal Murray makes 6-foot two point shotDEN 100 – 101 DAL · DEN 21% → 39% +18DEN 21% → 39%+18 pts
- Q41:05Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shotDEN 102 – 102 DAL · DEN 24% → 49% +25DEN 24% → 49%+25 pts
- Q427.1Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 105 – 102 DAL · DEN 50% → 95% +45DEN 50% → 95%+45 pts
- Q425.0Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)DEN 105 – 105 DAL · DAL 5% → 50% +46DAL 5% → 50%+46 pts
- Q40.1Kyrie Irving makes 21-foot two point shot (Maxi Kleber assists)DEN 105 – 107 DAL · DAL 50% → 100% +50DAL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 51%
- Fair odds
- DAL -115
- DEN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.1 – 115.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +59 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +10 Elo | DAL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 119.06th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 117.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +1.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 116.57th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 102.17th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 20–1517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.