Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points25
- Nikola JokicAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints17
- Terry RozierAssists4
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–88
- Q43.1Nikola Jokic lost ball turnover (Bam Adebayo steals)100–88
- Q423.0Jamal Murray defensive rebound100–88
- Q426.0Caleb Martin misses 23-foot three point jumper100–88
- Q432.2Duncan Robinson defensive rebound100–88
- Q436.0Michael Porter Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper100–88
- Q456.0Bam Adebayo makes driving layup100–88
- Q41:01Michael Porter Jr. traveling100–86
- Q41:04Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound100–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:59Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three pointer (Terry Rozier assists)DEN 59 – 59 MIA · MIA 39% → 50% +10MIA 39% → 50%+10 pts
- Q32:41Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 67 – 67 MIA · DEN 39% → 50% +11DEN 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q354.1Aaron Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 70 – 71 MIA · DEN 35% → 46% +12DEN 35% → 46%+12 pts
- Q411:13Christian Braun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 75 – 71 MIA · DEN 55% → 67% +12DEN 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q46:52Caleb Martin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Patty Mills assists)DEN 83 – 80 MIA · MIA 20% → 34% +13MIA 20% → 34%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 52%
- Fair odds
- DEN -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 106.1 – 105.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +9 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +12 Elo | DEN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 110.527th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 109.96th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 17–1419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.