Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints26
- RJ BarrettAssists9
- Bruce BrownRebounds10
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–125
- Q417.1Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound119–125
- Q419.1RJ Barrett misses two point shot119–125
- Q426.0Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2119–125
- Q426.0Nuggets offensive team rebound119–124
- Q426.0Michael Porter Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2119–124
- Q426.0Ochai Agbaji shooting foul119–124
- Q426.0Michael Porter Jr. offensive rebound119–124
- Q429.0Jamal Murray misses 25-foot step back jumpshot119–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q334.1Reggie Jackson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)TOR 98 – 91 DEN · DEN 30% → 42% +11DEN 30% → 42%+11 pts
- Q410:22Peyton Watson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)TOR 101 – 100 DEN · DEN 50% → 63% +13DEN 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q42:55Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)TOR 115 – 121 DEN · DEN 81% → 93% +13DEN 81% → 93%+13 pts
- Q41:23RJ Barrett makes 6-foot two point shotTOR 119 – 121 DEN · TOR 8% → 22% +14TOR 8% → 22%+14 pts
- Q41:02Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)TOR 119 – 124 DEN · DEN 80% → 97% +17DEN 80% → 97%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -12
- DEN 87%
- Fair odds
- DEN -505
- TOR +505 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.3 – 119.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −91 | +33 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +333 Elo | DEN 87.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 83.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 114.915th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 110.57th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.0 | Margin | +4.36th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 116.47th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 112.111th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–22 | Road vs home | 26–62nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.