Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints31
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Jamal MurrayRebounds10
Spurs- Jeremy SochanPoints19
- Tre JonesAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–106
- Q44.0shot clock turnover117–106
- Q429.2Victor Wembanyama makes dunk117–106
- Q429.2Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound117–104
- Q429.2Tre Jones misses two point shot117–104
- Q442.0Spurs offensive team rebound117–104
- Q442.0Jeremy Sochan misses free throw 1 of 1117–104
- Q442.0Jay Huff enters the game for Jamal Murray117–104
- Q442.0Reggie Jackson enters the game for Zeke Nnaji117–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:34Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)DEN 64 – 59 SA · SA 17% → 23% +7SA 17% → 23%+7 pts
- Q37:38Michael Porter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 67 – 59 SA · DEN 77% → 84% +7DEN 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q33:23Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)DEN 77 – 70 SA · SA 11% → 17% +6SA 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q32:29Zach Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)DEN 79 – 73 SA · SA 13% → 20% +7SA 13% → 20%+7 pts
- Q30.0Justin Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 86 – 79 SA · DEN 75% → 84% +9DEN 75% → 84%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6
- DEN 73%
- Fair odds
- DEN -229
- SA +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.4 – 108.1 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +19 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +174 Elo | DEN 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 69.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 112.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 119.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −7.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 108.627th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 103.03rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 7–2328th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.