Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints28
- Luka DoncicAssists16
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Spurs- Tre JonesPoints22
- Tre JonesAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–107
- Q44.1Luka Doncic defensive rebound113–107
- Q44.1Keldon Johnson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot113–107
- Q412.1Luka Doncic makes 1-foot layup (Maxi Kleber assists)113–107
- Q422.1Victor Wembanyama makes driving dunk (Tre Jones assists)111–107
- Q428.1Dante Exum makes free throw 2 of 2111–105
- Q428.1Dante Exum makes free throw 1 of 2110–105
- Q428.1Keldon Johnson personal take foul109–105
- Q432.1Dante Exum enters the game for Daniel Gafford109–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:57Malaki Branham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)DAL 93 – 95 SA · SA 38% → 54% +16SA 38% → 54%+16 pts
- Q44:27Dante Exum makes 25-foot three pointer (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 100 – 99 SA · DAL 42% → 62% +20DAL 42% → 62%+20 pts
- Q44:10Tre Jones makes two point shotDAL 100 – 101 SA · SA 38% → 51% +14SA 38% → 51%+14 pts
- Q43:46Kyrie Irving makes two point shot (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 102 – 101 SA · DAL 48% → 63% +15DAL 48% → 63%+15 pts
- Q42:29Kyrie Irving makes layup (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 104 – 101 SA · DAL 63% → 79% +15DAL 63% → 79%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5.5
- DAL 70%
- Fair odds
- DAL -215
- SA +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 120.6 – 114.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +19 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +150 Elo | DAL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 112.421st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 119.825th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −7.426th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 108.627th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 115.823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.0 | Pace | 102.93rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 8–2427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.