Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints31
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds14
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints33
- Devin VassellAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game115–122
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime115–122
- OT2.1Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2115–122
- OT2.1Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2115–121
- OT2.1Cameron Johnson personal take foul115–120
- OT2.1Tre Jones defensive rebound115–120
- OT5.2Dennis Schroder misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot115–120
- OT11.1Keldon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2115–120
- OT11.1Cam Thomas enters the game for Nic Claxton115–119
- OT11.1Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:45Victor Wembanyama makes dunk (Devin Vassell assists)BKN 107 – 107 SA · SA 31% → 51% +21SA 31% → 51%+21 pts
- Q41:04Keldon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)BKN 107 – 110 SA · SA 51% → 86% +35SA 51% → 86%+35 pts
- Q416.0Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 110 – 110 SA · BKN 2% → 49% +48BKN 2% → 49%+48 pts
- OT38.0Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Devin Vassell assists)BKN 115 – 116 SA · SA 33% → 68% +35SA 33% → 68%+35 pts
- OT20.1Keldon Johnson makes 1-foot layup (Jeremy Sochan assists)BKN 115 – 118 SA · SA 74% → 97% +23SA 74% → 97%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1.5
- SA 56%
- Fair odds
- SA -136
- BKN +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 109.7 – 112.0 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | +10 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +44 Elo | SA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 112.221st of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 119.825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.3 | Margin | −7.626th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 108.627th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.1 | Pace | 103.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–22 | Road vs home | 7–2428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.