Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints22
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints28
- Pascal SiakamAssists4
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–121
- Q47.0Trendon Watford makes 1-foot two point shot100–121
- Q413.1shot clock turnover98–121
- Q437.1Trendon Watford makes free throw 2 of 298–121
- Q437.1Trendon Watford makes free throw 1 of 297–121
- Q437.1Jarace Walker shooting foul96–121
- Q441.0Kendall Brown bad pass (Trendon Watford steals)96–121
- Q443.1Quenton Jackson defensive rebound96–121
- Q447.0Jarace Walker blocks Trendon Watford's two point shot96–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:29Jalen Smith makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)BKN 44 – 39 IND · IND 46% → 53% +8IND 46% → 53%+8 pts
- Q23:59Dennis Schroder makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 49 – 46 IND · BKN 35% → 43% +8BKN 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q310:56Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 60 – 61 IND · BKN 26% → 34% +8BKN 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q38:58Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 66 – 65 IND · BKN 31% → 40% +9BKN 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q38:01Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)BKN 66 – 68 IND · IND 59% → 69% +9IND 59% → 69%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 70%
- Fair odds
- IND -223
- BKN +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.9 – 119.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +25 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +146 Elo | IND 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 122.91st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 121.529th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 118.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–21 | Road vs home | 20–1416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.