Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints21
- Nic ClaxtonAssists5
- Cam ThomasRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints21
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–114
- Q49.0shot clock turnover106–114
- Q435.1Trendon Watford makes driving layup106–114
- Q440.1Nets offensive team rebound104–114
- Q440.1Anthony Black blocks Keita Bates-Diop 's 4-foot two point shot104–114
- Q443.1Trendon Watford defensive rebound104–114
- Q445.1Trendon Watford blocks Anthony Black 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot104–114
- Q41:08Trendon Watford makes 9-foot two point shot104–114
- Q41:28Goga Bitadze makes layup (Anthony Black assists)102–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:24Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)BKN 2 – 5 ORL · ORL 66% → 72% +6ORL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q19:09Wendell Carter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)BKN 2 – 10 ORL · ORL 75% → 80% +5ORL 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q21:16Dennis Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 49 – 59 ORL · BKN 11% → 15% +5BKN 11% → 15%+5 pts
- Q233.0Cam Thomas makes 26-foot step back jumpshotBKN 54 – 59 ORL · BKN 19% → 25% +6BKN 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q47:14Joe Ingles makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)BKN 90 – 101 ORL · ORL 89% → 95% +6ORL 89% → 95%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 63%
- Fair odds
- ORL -198
- BKN +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 101.6 – 106.8 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −15 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +95 Elo | ORL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 110.626th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 109.43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.223rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 21–86th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 2–1 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.