Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints35
- Nikola VucevicAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Fred VanVleetAssists12
- Jock LandaleRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–127
- Q420.0Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound117–127
- Q422.2Coby White misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot117–127
- Q427.18 second turnover117–127
- Q435.2Ayo Dosunmu makes 2-foot two point shot117–127
- Q444.1Amen Thompson makes layup (Fred VanVleet assists)115–127
- Q452.0Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound115–125
- Q454.1Coby White misses driving layup115–125
- Q457.1Dalen Terry offensive rebound115–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:39Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)CHI 66 – 71 HOU · HOU 59% → 67% +9HOU 59% → 67%+9 pts
- Q39:49Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 69 – 71 HOU · CHI 32% → 41% +9CHI 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q38:36Jalen Green makes 26-foot step back jumpshotCHI 71 – 76 HOU · HOU 59% → 68% +9HOU 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q410:54Torrey Craig makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)CHI 99 – 105 HOU · CHI 15% → 24% +9CHI 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q410:04Reggie Bullock Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)CHI 101 – 110 HOU · HOU 77% → 86% +9HOU 77% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- CHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.3 – 112.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −24 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +87 Elo | HOU 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.0 | Points scored | 113.617th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 112.511th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 111.623rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 110.65th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 23–117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.