Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Reggie JacksonPoints23
- Christian BraunAssists6
- Aaron GordonRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Duop ReathPoints24
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Jabari WalkerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–111
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound114–111
- Q40.0Kris Murray misses 69-foot three point pullup jump shot114–111
- Q40.1Kris Murray defensive rebound114–111
- Q41.2Reggie Jackson misses free throw 2 of 2114–111
- Q41.2Reggie Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2114–111
- Q41.2Toumani Camara personal take foul113–111
- Q43.1Scoot Henderson makes 1-foot two point shot113–111
- Q49.0Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2113–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:38Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)DEN 89 – 88 POR · POR 27% → 40% +13POR 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q49:01Scoot Henderson makes 28-foot three point jumperDEN 89 – 91 POR · POR 40% → 54% +14POR 40% → 54%+14 pts
- Q48:47Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot dunk (Christian Braun assists)DEN 91 – 91 POR · DEN 46% → 55% +10DEN 46% → 55%+10 pts
- Q47:50Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 96 – 91 POR · DEN 65% → 78% +13DEN 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q44:19Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 103 – 95 POR · DEN 83% → 93% +10DEN 83% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6
- DEN 72%
- Fair odds
- DEN -166
- POR +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 111.1 – 107.3 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −125 | −62 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +162 Elo | DEN 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 107.828th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 107.328th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 11–2625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−125 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 3–0 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.