New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points31
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–113
- Q412.1Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound100–113
- Q413.1Miles McBride misses two point shot100–113
- Q419.0Josh Hart defensive rebound100–113
- Q420.1Christian Braun misses free throw 2 of 2100–113
- Q420.1Christian Braun makes free throw 1 of 2100–113
- Q420.1Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul100–112
- Q429.0Jalen Brunson makes 7-foot two point shot100–112
- Q438.1Christian Braun enters the game for Jamal Murray98–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:54Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)NY 83 – 88 DEN · NY 14% → 23% +9NY 14% → 23%+9 pts
- Q48:50Bojan Bogdanovic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 86 – 90 DEN · NY 16% → 26% +10NY 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q48:19Alec Burks makes 4-foot two point shot (Precious Achiuwa assists)NY 88 – 90 DEN · NY 26% → 34% +9NY 26% → 34%+9 pts
- Q48:03Michael Porter Jr. makes 20-foot jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)NY 88 – 92 DEN · DEN 66% → 75% +9DEN 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q46:09Alec Burks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 92 – 97 DEN · NY 10% → 19% +10NY 10% → 19%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 64%
- Fair odds
- DEN -182
- NY +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 101.0 – 105.5 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +42 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +98 Elo | DEN 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.0 | Points scored | 114.714th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +4.45th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 116.56th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 112.010th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 27–62nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.