New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints34
- Josh HartAssists11
- Josh HartRebounds11
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Klay ThompsonAssists8
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–112
- Q41.2Jalen Brunson defensive rebound119–112
- Q42.2Andrew Wiggins misses 26-foot three point jumper119–112
- Q48.0Miles McBride makes 3-foot driving dunk (Josh Hart assists)119–112
- Q414.0Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)117–112
- Q418.1Isaiah Hartenstein makes free throw 2 of 2117–109
- Q418.1Knicks offensive team rebound116–109
- Q418.1Isaiah Hartenstein misses free throw 1 of 2116–109
- Q418.1Draymond Green personal take foul116–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:25Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NY 65 – 58 GS · NY 56% → 65% +9NY 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q38:30Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 74 – 65 GS · NY 64% → 72% +9NY 64% → 72%+9 pts
- Q33:34Jalen Brunson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 88 – 79 GS · NY 67% → 76% +9NY 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q32:35Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)NY 90 – 84 GS · GS 23% → 32% +9GS 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q31:11Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)NY 95 – 88 GS · GS 19% → 28% +9GS 19% → 28%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 58%
- Fair odds
- GS -137
- NY +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 106.4 – 108.7 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +19 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +57 Elo | GS 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30111.9 | Points scored | 118.47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 116.819th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +1.614th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 115.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 113.615th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 17–1721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.