Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Draymond GreenAssists13
- Draymond GreenRebounds12
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints40
- D'Angelo RussellAssists13
- Jaxson HayesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–121
- Q415.2Rui Hachimura makes 9-foot two point shot128–121
- Q435.1Andrew Wiggins makes 2-foot two point shot (Draymond Green assists)128–119
- Q454.1LeBron James makes two point shot126–119
- Q455.1LeBron James offensive rebound126–117
- Q455.1LeBron James misses two point shot126–117
- Q458.0LeBron James offensive rebound126–117
- Q459.1LeBron James misses driving floating jump shot126–117
- Q41:07Jonathan Kuminga makes alley oop dunk shot (Draymond Green assists)126–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:25D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)GS 74 – 71 LAL · LAL 38% → 47% +10LAL 38% → 47%+10 pts
- Q35:47Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 81 – 75 LAL · GS 53% → 63% +10GS 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q31:57Brandin Podziemski makes 24-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)GS 96 – 87 LAL · GS 67% → 76% +10GS 67% → 76%+10 pts
- Q411:12Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)GS 102 – 96 LAL · LAL 20% → 31% +10LAL 20% → 31%+10 pts
- Q45:03Stephen Curry makes layup (Draymond Green assists)GS 118 – 112 LAL · GS 71% → 81% +10GS 71% → 81%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1.5
- LAL 57%
- Fair odds
- LAL -158
- GS +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 117.6 – 121.0 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +40 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +46 Elo | LAL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 117.210th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 117.522nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 113.617th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 102.45th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 24–118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.