Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- LeBron JamesRebounds13
Kings- Harrison BarnesPoints23
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–120
- Q419.1Kessler Edwards makes 20-foot jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)107–120
- Q443.1Max Christie makes 1-foot driving dunk107–118
- Q457.0Maxwell Lewis enters the game for D'Angelo Russell105–118
- Q457.0Skylar Mays enters the game for Rui Hachimura105–118
- Q457.0Max Christie enters the game for LeBron James105–118
- Q457.0Harry Giles III enters the game for Austin Reaves105–118
- Q457.0Jaxson Hayes enters the game for Anthony Davis105–118
- Q457.0Colby Jones enters the game for Harrison Barnes105–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:32Chris Duarte makes 23-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)LAL 50 – 55 SAC · SAC 50% → 58% +8SAC 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q22:16Austin Reaves makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 53 – 55 SAC · LAL 42% → 50% +8LAL 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q21:38Austin Reaves makes 25-foot step back jumpshotLAL 56 – 55 SAC · LAL 50% → 58% +8LAL 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q21:29Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)LAL 56 – 58 SAC · SAC 42% → 50% +8SAC 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q310:54Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)LAL 56 – 65 SAC · SAC 62% → 71% +8SAC 62% → 71%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 57%
- Fair odds
- LAL -136
- SAC +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 122.6 – 120.2 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +42 | +17 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +50 Elo | LAL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 57.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 118.47th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 117.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 115.710th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 114.820th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 18–1212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–3 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.