Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–129
- Q48.0Chris Duarte defensive rebound94–129
- Q411.0Danilo Gallinari misses 28-foot three point shot94–129
- Q415.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound94–129
- Q421.0Colby Jones misses driving layup94–129
- Q439.1Danilo Gallinari makes free throw 2 of 294–129
- Q439.1Danilo Gallinari makes free throw 1 of 293–129
- Q439.1Jalen Slawson shooting foul92–129
- Q454.0Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound92–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:27Keon Ellis makes 27-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)MIL 0 – 3 SAC · SAC 50% → 56% +6SAC 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q16:45Harrison Barnes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)MIL 11 – 19 SAC · SAC 61% → 67% +6SAC 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q11:43Malik Monk makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)MIL 26 – 33 SAC · SAC 59% → 66% +7SAC 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q29:45Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)MIL 36 – 45 SAC · SAC 64% → 71% +7SAC 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q25:59Malik Monk makes 27-foot three pointer (Davion Mitchell assists)MIL 42 – 54 SAC · SAC 72% → 78% +6SAC 72% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- SAC +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 119.2 – 119.2 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +12 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +29 Elo | MIL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 118.28th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 117.923rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 115.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 115.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 17–1216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.