New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints42
- Precious AchiuwaAssists4
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints21
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–91
- Q46.2Josh Hart defensive rebound98–91
- Q410.1De'Aaron Fox misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot98–91
- Q415.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 298–91
- Q415.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 297–91
- Q415.1Malik Monk personal take foul96–91
- Q422.1Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound96–91
- Q425.0Harrison Barnes misses 27-foot three point jumper96–91
- Q426.1Harrison Barnes offensive rebound96–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:32Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)NY 75 – 77 SAC · SAC 49% → 61% +13SAC 49% → 61%+13 pts
- Q48:45Bojan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Precious Achiuwa assists)NY 78 – 79 SAC · NY 29% → 42% +14NY 29% → 42%+14 pts
- Q46:39Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)NY 84 – 82 SAC · SAC 26% → 41% +15SAC 26% → 41%+15 pts
- Q44:55Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNY 89 – 82 SAC · NY 73% → 86% +14NY 73% → 86%+14 pts
- Q43:24Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)NY 91 – 87 SAC · SAC 9% → 23% +14SAC 9% → 23%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 55%
- Fair odds
- SAC -129
- NY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.5 – 110.4 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +15 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +34 Elo | SAC 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Points scored | 118.47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 117.421st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 115.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.820th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 19–1212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.