Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Jamal MurrayAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints30
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–112
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound115–112
- Q40.1Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot115–112
- Q44.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2115–112
- Q44.0Luka Garza enters the game for Kyle Anderson114–112
- Q44.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2114–112
- Q44.0Jaden McDaniels personal take foul113–112
- Q45.1Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three pointer (Kyle Anderson assists)113–112
- Q47.1Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Luka Garza113–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q327.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 87 – 84 MIN · DEN 56% → 68% +12DEN 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q46:50Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 92 – 93 MIN · DEN 33% → 49% +16DEN 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q45:10Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Justin Holiday assists)DEN 99 – 93 MIN · DEN 72% → 85% +14DEN 72% → 85%+14 pts
- Q43:21Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)DEN 101 – 98 MIN · MIN 10% → 25% +15MIN 10% → 25%+15 pts
- Q43:00Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 104 – 98 MIN · DEN 76% → 91% +15DEN 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 58%
- Fair odds
- DEN -166
- MIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 107.4 – 103.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1627 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | −45 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Missing Rudy Gobert −30 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +59 Elo | DEN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 113.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 106.61st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +6.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 106.91st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 23–86th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−45 Elo- Rudy Gobert rib injury−30 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.