Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints34
- Jordan ClarksonAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–105
- Q422.1Jaden Hardy defensive rebound115–105
- Q425.0Johnny Juzang misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot115–105
- Q434.0Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound115–105
- Q436.1Jaden Hardy misses 23-foot three point jumper115–105
- Q438.0Mavericks offensive team rebound115–105
- Q438.0Kira Lewis Jr. blocks Jaden Hardy 's 5-foot driving layup115–105
- Q448.1Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Maxi Kleber115–105
- Q448.1Jaden Hardy enters the game for Luka Doncic115–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:31Kyrie Irving makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 77 – 79 UTAH · DAL 45% → 55% +10DAL 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q36:11Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DAL 80 – 79 UTAH · DAL 55% → 65% +10DAL 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q410:36Kyrie Irving makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 93 – 89 UTAH · DAL 63% → 75% +12DAL 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q410:02Collin Sexton makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)DAL 93 – 94 UTAH · UTAH 33% → 46% +13UTAH 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q48:43P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DAL 100 – 96 UTAH · DAL 63% → 76% +13DAL 63% → 76%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -7.5
- DAL 76%
- Fair odds
- DAL -216
- UTAH +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 123.5 – 117.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +57 | −17 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +205 Elo | DAL 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 116.811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 120.928th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −4.123rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 117.929th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.1 | Pace | 101.89th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 20–1518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–1 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.