Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints37
- Jalen GreenAssists7
- Amen ThompsonRebounds15
Thunder- Josh GiddeyPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists10
- Kenrich WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game132–126
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime132–126
- OT2.1Rockets defensive team rebound132–126
- OT5.1Jalen Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper132–126
- OT13.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 2132–126
- OT13.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2131–126
- OT13.1Josh Giddey enters the game for Kenrich Williams130–126
- OT13.1(00:13.5) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Thunder] charged with a timeout130–126
- OT13.1Thunder Full timeout130–126
- OT13.1Luguentz Dort personal foul130–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:24Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)HOU 99 – 101 OKC · OKC 41% → 60% +18OKC 41% → 60%+18 pts
- Q452.1Dillon Brooks makes driving layupHOU 108 – 109 OKC · HOU 13% → 36% +23HOU 13% → 36%+23 pts
- Q421.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 111 – 109 OKC · HOU 28% → 89% +61HOU 28% → 89%+61 pts
- Q44.1Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three pointer (Josh Giddey assists)HOU 112 – 112 OKC · OKC <1% → 50% +50OKC <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:43Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Green assists)HOU 115 – 112 OKC · HOU 52% → 71% +19HOU 52% → 71%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -133
- OKC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.8 – 113.6 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −86 | HOU: Usual rotation · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +74 Elo | HOU 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 120.34th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 112.913th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +7.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 117.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 110.67th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–24 | Road vs home | 28–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.