Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints26
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints29
- Zion WilliamsonAssists10
- CJ McCollumRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–112
- Q42.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound119–112
- Q46.2CJ McCollum misses 25-foot three point jumper119–112
- Q415.1Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2119–112
- Q415.1Kenrich Williams enters the game for Josh Giddey118–112
- Q415.1Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2118–112
- Q415.1Zion Williamson personal foul117–112
- Q417.1Naji Marshall personal foul117–112
- Q419.1Larry Nance Jr. kicked ball violation117–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:31Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 102 – 99 NO · OKC 48% → 64% +15OKC 48% → 64%+15 pts
- Q45:26Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 107 – 105 NO · OKC 42% → 61% +18OKC 42% → 61%+18 pts
- Q44:25Trey Murphy III makes 28-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)OKC 107 – 110 NO · NO 51% → 71% +20NO 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q41:29Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 112 – 112 NO · OKC 18% → 49% +31OKC 18% → 49%+31 pts
- Q41:02Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 115 – 112 NO · OKC 49% → 85% +36OKC 49% → 85%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2.5
- NO 59%
- Fair odds
- NO -119
- OKC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 111.6 – 113.0 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +19 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +66 Elo | NO 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.3 | Points scored | 115.713th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 110.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.4 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 110.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.617th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 20–1314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–1 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.