New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints21
- Herbert JonesAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds7
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints22
- Paolo BancheroAssists11
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–121
- Q40.0Pelicans offensive team rebound106–121
- Q40.0Matt Ryan misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot106–121
- Q41.1Anthony Black bad pass (Jordan Hawkins steals)106–121
- Q44.1Goga Bitadze defensive goaltending violation106–121
- Q44.1Naji Marshall makes driving layup106–121
- Q410.2shot clock turnover104–121
- Q428.1Anthony Black defensive rebound104–121
- Q433.1Anthony Black blocks Jose Alvarado 's 6-foot driving floating jump shot104–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:04Cole Anthony makes 28-foot three point jumper (Joe Ingles assists)NO 28 – 28 ORL · ORL 43% → 50% +7ORL 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q28:31Moritz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)NO 34 – 35 ORL · ORL 45% → 53% +8ORL 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q27:50Jonathan Isaac makes 26-foot three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)NO 34 – 38 ORL · ORL 53% → 60% +8ORL 53% → 60%+8 pts
- Q35:11Caleb Houstan makes 24-foot three point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)NO 66 – 76 ORL · ORL 73% → 81% +8ORL 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q34:50Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 69 – 76 ORL · NO 19% → 27% +8NO 19% → 27%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- ORL 44%
- Fair odds
- ORL -102
- NO +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 104.8 – 104.9 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +7 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +41 Elo | NO 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 110.826th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 108.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +2.012th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.8 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–13 | Road vs home | 24–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.