New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints28
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Larry Nance Jr.Rebounds10
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints25
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–91
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pelicans] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)104–91
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound104–91
- Q40.0Day'Ron Sharpe misses dunk104–91
- Q41.0Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound104–91
- Q41.0Lonnie Walker IV misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot104–91
- Q46.2shot clock turnover104–91
- Q431.1Jalen Wilson makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)104–91
- Q431.1Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound104–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:44Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)NO 2 – 3 BKN · BKN 29% → 35% +6BKN 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q110:17CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three pointer (Herbert Jones assists)NO 5 – 3 BKN · NO 65% → 71% +6NO 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q13:57Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 18 – 15 BKN · NO 66% → 72% +6NO 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q13:30Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 21 – 15 BKN · NO 72% → 78% +5NO 72% → 78%+5 pts
- Q13:17Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)NO 21 – 18 BKN · BKN 22% → 28% +6BKN 22% → 28%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6
- NO 72%
- Fair odds
- NO -208
- BKN +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 111.5 – 105.9 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | −25 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | NO crossed 1 time zone and BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +164 Elo | NO 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 67.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 111.724th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 114.115th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.1 | Margin | −2.422nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 112.020th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.9 | Pace | 99.221st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 16–1823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.