Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints19
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points31
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists10
- Kelly OlynykRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–103
- Q412.1shot clock turnover113–103
- Q434.1Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound113–103
- Q438.0Jontay Porter misses 27-foot three point jumper113–103
- Q444.1Jontay Porter defensive rebound113–103
- Q447.1Caleb Houstan misses 25-foot three point jumper113–103
- Q455.1Jontay Porter enters the game for Kelly Olynyk113–103
- Q455.1Kelly Olynyk personal foul113–103
- Q41:12Kelly Olynyk makes tip shot113–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:30Gary Harris makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 55 – 51 TOR · ORL 68% → 76% +8ORL 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q34:54Jordan Nwora makes 23-foot three point shot (Bruce Brown assists)ORL 67 – 66 TOR · TOR 25% → 34% +9TOR 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q34:26Jordan Nwora makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotORL 67 – 69 TOR · TOR 34% → 44% +10TOR 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q34:06Paolo Banchero makes 27-foot three pointerORL 70 – 69 TOR · ORL 56% → 66% +10ORL 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q33:31Jalen Suggs makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 73 – 69 TOR · ORL 66% → 75% +9ORL 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6.5
- ORL 74%
- Fair odds
- ORL -250
- TOR +250 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 113.5 – 106.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | −95 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +183 Elo | ORL 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 114.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 118.224th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −4.124th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 13–1924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.