Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints25
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Jahmi'us RamseyRebounds7
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints24
- Jaden IveyAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds23
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–113
- Q44.0Stanley Umude makes free throw 2 of 2104–113
- Q44.0Stanley Umude makes free throw 1 of 2104–112
- Q44.0Bruce Brown personal take foul104–111
- Q45.0Kelly Olynyk bad pass (Stanley Umude steals)104–111
- Q46.1Isaiah Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2104–111
- Q46.1Pistons offensive team rebound104–110
- Q46.1Isaiah Stewart misses free throw 1 of 2104–110
- Q46.1Gradey Dick personal take foul104–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q254.1Simone Fontecchio makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)TOR 57 – 50 DET · DET 32% → 40% +8DET 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q39:30Isaiah Stewart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)TOR 59 – 62 DET · DET 59% → 68% +9DET 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q37:08Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 66 – 67 DET · TOR 29% → 38% +9TOR 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q34:56Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)TOR 73 – 73 DET · TOR 32% → 42% +10TOR 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q31.1Stanley Umude makes 24-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)TOR 79 – 83 DET · DET 61% → 72% +11DET 61% → 72%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 65%
- Fair odds
- DET -178
- TOR +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.1 – 120.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −83 | 0 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | TOR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +110 Elo | DET 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 112.421st of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 120.827th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.0 | Margin | −8.428th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 109.525th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 117.728th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.18th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–23 | Road vs home | 6–2629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.