Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints21
- Miles BridgesAssists5
- Brandon MillerRebounds7
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints21
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–112
- Q412.2shot clock turnover92–112
- Q437.1Amari Bailey makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot92–112
- Q449.1Hornets offensive team rebound90–112
- Q452.1Amari Bailey misses 25-foot three point jumper90–112
- Q41:03Hornets offensive team rebound90–112
- Q41:03Anthony Black blocks Nick Richards 's 3-foot layup90–112
- Q41:10Chuma Okeke bad pass (Amari Bailey steals)90–112
- Q41:14Chuma Okeke defensive rebound90–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:54Paolo Banchero makes driving layupCHA 4 – 4 ORL · ORL 71% → 75% +4ORL 71% → 75%+4 pts
- Q15:15Brandon Miller makes 28-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 9 – 8 ORL · CHA 23% → 28% +5CHA 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q14:55Franz Wagner makes driving layupCHA 9 – 10 ORL · ORL 72% → 75% +4ORL 72% → 75%+4 pts
- Q14:16Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)CHA 9 – 16 ORL · ORL 80% → 85% +4ORL 80% → 85%+4 pts
- Q12:39Jonathan Isaac makes 26-foot three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)CHA 13 – 21 ORL · ORL 82% → 86% +4ORL 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -8.5
- ORL 80%
- Fair odds
- ORL -305
- CHA +305 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 97.1 – 105.6 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1351 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | +6 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +244 Elo | ORL 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.8 | Points scored | 110.726th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 109.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.9 | Margin | +1.712th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 109.74th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 308–27 | Road vs home | 23–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.