Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints21
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds21
Hornets- Vasilije MicicPoints21
- Tre MannAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–96
- Q414.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 16-foot running pullup jump shot107–96
- Q417.0Nick Smith Jr. defensive rebound107–94
- Q417.2Drew Eubanks misses dunk107–94
- Q417.2Drew Eubanks offensive rebound107–94
- Q424.1Nassir Little misses 26-foot three point jumper107–94
- Q437.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 15-foot step back jumpshot107–94
- Q446.1Aleksej Pokusevski defensive rebound107–92
- Q448.2Grayson Allen misses 26-foot three point jumper107–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:31Grant Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)PHX 10 – 11 CHA · CHA 37% → 43% +6CHA 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q12:28Eric Gordon makes three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 21 – 19 CHA · PHX 56% → 63% +7PHX 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q148.1Eric Gordon makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 28 – 24 CHA · PHX 61% → 67% +7PHX 61% → 67%+7 pts
- Q210:03Bradley Beal makes 24-foot step back jumpshotPHX 33 – 30 CHA · PHX 58% → 65% +7PHX 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q311:12Brandon Miller makes 24-foot three pointer (Miles Bridges assists)PHX 54 – 48 CHA · CHA 20% → 27% +7CHA 20% → 27%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5
- PHX 70%
- Fair odds
- PHX -148
- CHA +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.7 – 107.7 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | −10 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +145 Elo | PHX 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 107.129th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 117.019th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −9.930th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 107.628th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 117.529th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.5 | Pace | 99.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 9–2326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.