Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Tre MannPoints21
- Tre MannAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Kyle LowryAssists7
- Paul ReedRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–109
- Q46.1shot clock turnover98–109
- Q430.1Davis Bertans makes 2-foot dunk (Tre Mann assists)98–109
- Q439.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 296–109
- Q439.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 296–108
- Q439.1Tre Mann personal take foul96–107
- Q443.0Kyle Lowry defensive rebound96–107
- Q446.0Grant Williams misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot96–107
- Q459.0Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 296–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:32Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot step back jumpshotCHA 84 – 86 PHI · PHI 49% → 64% +15PHI 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q44:20Paul Reed makes two point shotCHA 89 – 92 PHI · PHI 60% → 73% +13PHI 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q44:04Vasilije Micic makes 21-foot pullup jump shot (Grant Williams assists)CHA 91 – 93 PHI · CHA 21% → 33% +12CHA 21% → 33%+12 pts
- Q43:41Tyrese Maxey makes 6-foot two point shotCHA 91 – 95 PHI · PHI 67% → 80% +12PHI 67% → 80%+12 pts
- Q42:57Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Kyle Lowry assists)CHA 93 – 97 PHI · PHI 69% → 82% +13PHI 69% → 82%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 62%
- Fair odds
- PHI -154
- CHA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 103.8 – 107.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1359 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −13 | −87 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +88 Elo | PHI 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 115.214th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 112.912th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−9.9 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 115.112th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 112.812th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.718th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–26 | Road vs home | 19–1518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–3 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.