Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists4
- Paul ReedRebounds7
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Damian LillardAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–114
- Q46.1Buddy Hield lost ball turnover (Patrick Beverley steals)105–114
- Q420.2Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2105–114
- Q420.2Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2105–113
- Q420.2Buddy Hield personal take foul105–112
- Q421.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound105–112
- Q424.1Tyrese Maxey misses 27-foot three point jumper105–112
- Q436.0Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q436.0Buddy Hield enters the game for KJ Martin105–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:53Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 75 – 73 MIL · PHI 37% → 48% +11PHI 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:31Pat Connaughton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)PHI 75 – 76 MIL · MIL 52% → 63% +11MIL 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q47:15Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)PHI 90 – 91 MIL · PHI 24% → 38% +14PHI 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q46:50AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)PHI 90 – 94 MIL · MIL 62% → 76% +14MIL 62% → 76%+14 pts
- Q42:11Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 2-foot two point shot (Damian Lillard assists)PHI 99 – 104 MIL · MIL 80% → 91% +11MIL 80% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -5.5
- MIL 71%
- Fair odds
- MIL -201
- PHI +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.3 – 115.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −66 | +6 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MIL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +156 Elo | MIL 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 120.54th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 117.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +3.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 113.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.8 | Pace | 102.45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 25–74th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.