Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jordan NworaPoints18
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists5
- Jordan NworaRebounds7
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints29
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–111
- Q41.0shot clock turnover96–111
- Q426.0Jontay Porter makes tip shot96–111
- Q426.0Jontay Porter offensive rebound94–111
- Q426.0Jontay Porter misses tip shot94–111
- Q426.0Jontay Porter offensive rebound94–111
- Q429.1Jalen McDaniels misses 25-foot three point jumper94–111
- Q441.1Raptors defensive team rebound94–111
- Q443.1Anthony Black misses free throw 2 of 294–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q138.2Moritz Wagner makes driving layupTOR 22 – 26 ORL · ORL 76% → 83% +7ORL 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q23:37Gradey Dick makes 24-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 45 – 43 ORL · TOR 25% → 32% +7TOR 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q22:55Franz Wagner makes two point shotTOR 45 – 45 ORL · ORL 68% → 73% +5ORL 68% → 73%+5 pts
- Q21.0Caleb Houstan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)TOR 47 – 52 ORL · ORL 76% → 83% +6ORL 76% → 83%+6 pts
- Q329.1Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 73 – 84 ORL · ORL 89% → 94% +5ORL 89% → 94%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -9
- ORL 82%
- Fair odds
- ORL -378
- TOR +378 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 104.7 – 114.9 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −94 | −12 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +258 Elo | ORL 81.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 110.726th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.2 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–24 | Road vs home | 22–86th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−94 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.