New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints30
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints17
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–88
- Q410.0shot clock turnover111–88
- Q434.1Cole Swider makes 24-foot three point shot (Haywood Highsmith assists)111–88
- Q440.2Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound111–85
- Q442.2Jordan Hawkins misses dunk111–85
- Q445.1Jamal Cain lost ball turnover (Cody Zeller steals)111–85
- Q454.1Matt Ryan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)111–85
- Q455.1Jose Alvarado offensive rebound108–85
- Q458.1Jordan Hawkins misses 16-foot pullup jump shot108–85
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:11Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)NO 52 – 45 MIA · NO 57% → 66% +9NO 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q36:56Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)NO 59 – 50 MIA · MIA 19% → 27% +7MIA 19% → 27%+7 pts
- Q33:06Thomas Bryant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)NO 66 – 58 MIA · MIA 18% → 26% +8MIA 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q32:47Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 69 – 58 MIA · NO 74% → 82% +8NO 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q35.0CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointerNO 76 – 66 MIA · NO 74% → 83% +9NO 74% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- NO +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 103.6 – 105.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | +1 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +30 Elo | MIA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 109.727th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 109.24th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +0.518th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 111.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.8 | Pace | 97.928th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 17–1519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.