Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints30
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists5
- Thomas BryantRebounds10
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints25
- Caris LeVertAssists12
- Jarrett AllenRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–104
- Q40.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound107–104
- Q40.0Darius Garland misses 34-foot three point jumper107–104
- Q42.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2107–104
- Q42.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Nikola Jovic106–104
- Q42.1Delon Wright enters the game for Patty Mills106–104
- Q42.1Sam Merrill enters the game for Isaac Okoro106–104
- Q42.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 1 of 2106–104
- Q42.1Isaac Okoro personal foul105–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:53Georges Niang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)MIA 92 – 91 CLE · CLE 30% → 47% +17CLE 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q41:24Terry Rozier makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMIA 99 – 100 CLE · MIA 10% → 37% +26MIA 10% → 37%+26 pts
- Q439.0Jimmy Butler makes 9-foot two point shotMIA 102 – 100 CLE · MIA 49% → 81% +32MIA 49% → 81%+32 pts
- Q431.2Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot dunk (Darius Garland assists)MIA 102 – 102 CLE · CLE 16% → 51% +34CLE 16% → 51%+34 pts
- Q414.1Terry Rozier makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIA 105 – 102 CLE · MIA 49% → 99% +49MIA 49% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 59%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 101.8 – 104.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | −40 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +64 Elo | CLE 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 113.519th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 109.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +4.17th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 113.817th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 109.74th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 21–1311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.