Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints22
- Caleb MartinAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Pistons- Simone FontecchioPoints24
- Jaden IveyAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–95
- Q411.2James Wiseman makes 16-foot step back jumpshot108–95
- Q428.1James Wiseman defensive rebound108–93
- Q432.1Duncan Robinson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot108–93
- Q454.1Thomas Bryant defensive rebound108–93
- Q457.1Stanley Umude misses 23-foot three point jumper108–93
- Q41:08Jamal Cain enters the game for Caleb Martin108–93
- Q41:08Marcus Sasser enters the game for Isaiah Stewart108–93
- Q41:08Malachi Flynn enters the game for Jaden Ivey108–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:46Evan Fournier makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)MIA 23 – 26 DET · DET 41% → 48% +7DET 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q28:30Bam Adebayo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 37 – 35 DET · MIA 56% → 63% +7MIA 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q27:24Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jaden Ivey assists)MIA 39 – 40 DET · DET 37% → 44% +7DET 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q24:44Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point shot (Jaden Ivey assists)MIA 48 – 45 DET · DET 27% → 35% +7DET 27% → 35%+7 pts
- Q38:12Simone Fontecchio makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)MIA 66 – 61 DET · DET 21% → 29% +8DET 21% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 64%
- Fair odds
- MIA -150
- DET +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.8 – 107.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +9 | MIA: Usual rotation · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +96 Elo | MIA 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 112.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 120.526th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −8.128th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 109.425th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 117.326th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 102.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 7–2629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.