Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints23
- Caris LeVertAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints19
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–103
- Q40.1Pacers offensive team rebound108–103
- Q40.1Tyrese Haliburton misses 40-foot three point pullup jump shot108–103
- Q42.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound108–103
- Q44.0Darius Garland misses free throw 2 of 2108–103
- Q44.0Jarrett Allen enters the game for Marcus Morris Sr.108–103
- Q44.0Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2108–103
- Q44.0Tyrese Haliburton personal take foul107–103
- Q48.1Marcus Morris Sr. enters the game for Jarrett Allen107–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:23Andrew Nembhard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)CLE 99 – 96 IND · IND 23% → 38% +15IND 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q43:34Myles Turner makes 2-foot two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)CLE 103 – 101 IND · IND 25% → 38% +13IND 25% → 38%+13 pts
- Q42:05Tyrese Haliburton makes 9-foot two point shotCLE 103 – 103 IND · IND 33% → 53% +19IND 33% → 53%+19 pts
- Q41:41Caris LeVert makes 9-foot two point shotCLE 105 – 103 IND · CLE 48% → 69% +21CLE 48% → 69%+21 pts
- Q426.0Isaac Okoro makes 3-foot layup (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 107 – 103 IND · CLE 86% → 98% +13CLE 86% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 63%
- Fair odds
- IND -163
- CLE +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 113.6 – 117.3 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | +26 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +96 Elo | IND 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 122.91st of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 121.229th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 118.13rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 116.425th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–12 | Road vs home | 21–1413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–2 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.