Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints30
- Terry RozierAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds17
Pistons- Evan FournierPoints18
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–101
- Q40.0(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)104–101
- Q40.0Bam Adebayo makes 30-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)104–101
- Q45.0Terry Rozier defensive rebound101–101
- Q49.0Cade Cunningham misses 27-foot three point jumper101–101
- Q423.1Duncan Robinson bad pass (Evan Fournier steals)101–101
- Q442.1Cade Cunningham makes driving layup101–101
- Q449.1Pistons Full timeout101–99
- Q449.1shot clock turnover101–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:13Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIA 97 – 96 DET · DET 16% → 39% +23DET 16% → 39%+23 pts
- Q42:00Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 100 – 96 DET · MIA 61% → 85% +24MIA 61% → 85%+24 pts
- Q41:15Isaiah Stewart makes three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)MIA 101 – 99 DET · DET 5% → 25% +20DET 5% → 25%+20 pts
- Q442.1Cade Cunningham makes driving layupMIA 101 – 101 DET · DET 19% → 49% +30DET 19% → 49%+30 pts
- Q40.0Bam Adebayo makes 30-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 104 – 101 DET · MIA 52% → 100% +48MIA 52% → 100%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 60%
- Fair odds
- MIA -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.3 – 107.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −52 | +5 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −53, Nikola Jovic −3 · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +67 Elo | MIA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 112.122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 120.326th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −8.228th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 109.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 117.226th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 102.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 7–2729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−52 Elo- Jimmy Butler III right foot−53 Elo
- Nikola Jovic strained right hamstring−3 Elo
Pistons
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.