Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints20
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–98
- Q47.1Nicolas Batum defensive rebound91–98
- Q49.2Patty Mills misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot91–98
- Q412.0Patty Mills enters the game for Haywood Highsmith91–98
- Q412.0Heat Full timeout91–98
- Q412.0Buddy Hield makes free throw 2 of 291–98
- Q412.0Buddy Hield makes free throw 1 of 291–97
- Q412.0Caleb Martin personal take foul91–96
- Q418.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 191–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:59Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 80 – 83 PHI · MIA 21% → 34% +13MIA 21% → 34%+13 pts
- Q47:21Terry Rozier makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIA 83 – 85 PHI · MIA 24% → 38% +14MIA 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q46:34Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three pointer (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIA 85 – 88 PHI · PHI 51% → 67% +16PHI 51% → 67%+16 pts
- Q44:47Terry Rozier makes driving layupMIA 87 – 88 PHI · MIA 30% → 42% +12MIA 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q43:09Kyle Lowry makes 29-foot three pointer (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIA 87 – 91 PHI · PHI 59% → 80% +21PHI 59% → 80%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1
- PHI 46%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 104.2 – 105.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −50 | −82 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −53, Nikola Jovic −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Missing Tobias Harris −18, Kai Jones −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +25 Elo | MIA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 115.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 112.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +2.410th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 115.113th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.618th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 20–1518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−50 Elo- Jimmy Butler III right foot−53 Elo
- Nikola Jovic right hamstring strain−3 Elo
76ers
−82 Elo- Tobias Harris right ankle sprain−18 Elo
- Kai Jones right hamstring strain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.