Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints23
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints21
- Jontay PorterAssists8
- Ochai AgbajiRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–103
- Q414.0Lindy Waters III defensive rebound123–103
- Q417.0Jordan Nwora misses 26-foot three point jumper123–103
- Q427.0shot clock turnover123–103
- Q427.0Thunder offensive team rebound123–103
- Q427.1Lindy Waters III misses 23-foot step back jumpshot123–103
- Q451.0Jordan Nwora makes 8-foot two point shot123–103
- Q457.0Cason Wallace makes two point shot123–101
- Q457.1Cason Wallace offensive rebound121–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:56Kenrich Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 12 – 20 TOR · OKC 57% → 63% +6OKC 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q15:27Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)OKC 14 – 23 TOR · TOR 33% → 39% +6TOR 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q11:52Ochai Agbaji makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jontay Porter assists)OKC 26 – 31 TOR · TOR 27% → 33% +6TOR 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q210:43Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 35 – 37 TOR · OKC 66% → 72% +6OKC 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q49:15Jontay Porter makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Jordan Nwora assists)OKC 94 – 88 TOR · TOR 8% → 14% +6TOR 8% → 14%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10.5
- OKC 85%
- Fair odds
- OKC -394
- TOR +394 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 122.2 – 111.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −117 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +300 Elo | OKC 84.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.7 | Points scored | 113.319th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 118.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.7 | Margin | −4.824th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 111.424th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 13–2124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.