Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints20
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds17
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points18
- Bruce BrownAssists6
- Gary Trent Jr.Rebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–89
- Q414.1Kessler Edwards defensive rebound123–89
- Q417.1JaVale McGee blocks Mouhamadou Gueye 's 7-foot two point shot123–89
- Q437.0Davion Mitchell makes driving layup (Kessler Edwards assists)123–89
- Q41:00Jahmi'us Ramsey makes 15-foot pullup jump shot121–89
- Q41:12Jahmi'us Ramsey defensive rebound121–87
- Q41:13JaVale McGee misses 4-foot two point shot121–87
- Q41:21JaVale McGee offensive rebound121–87
- Q41:21Colby Jones misses 25-foot three point jumper121–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:36Kelly Olynyk makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)SAC 11 – 8 TOR · TOR 19% → 24% +5TOR 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q18:07De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointer (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 14 – 8 TOR · SAC 76% → 81% +5SAC 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q17:52Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)SAC 14 – 11 TOR · TOR 19% → 24% +5TOR 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q15:47Harrison Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 19 – 17 TOR · SAC 68% → 74% +6SAC 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q132.1Malik Monk makes 25-foot step back jumpshotSAC 32 – 27 TOR · SAC 73% → 79% +6SAC 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -7.5
- SAC 77%
- Fair odds
- SAC -252
- TOR +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 121.8 – 114.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −117 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | SAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +211 Elo | SAC 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 113.717th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 118.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −4.324th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 111.722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 13–2024th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.